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The Russo-Ukrainian War: A plausible peace through mediation.
Since the Russia invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, there had been many attempts from both countries to reach a place where the rest of the world are hoping for, peace. Failed talks after failed talks prove that negotiation between disputed parties might not work in this situation and may not work in the future. This Article will propose an alternative resolution which could possibly settle this conflict.
– A mediation, perhaps?
– What is mediation?
Mediation is one of the more informal alternative dispute resolution options. Parties can specify the basic procedures, scheduling, and a complete control over the process and outcome. Parties need to appoint a mediator, someone who would have no conflict of interest between the involved parties. The mediator is usually a trained ADR professional who can assist the parties reaching their agreements. Mostly, mediator is a subject-matter expert who has a deep understanding of the dispute in question.
– How could still mediation work in this situation?
Despite the fact that this situation had been mediated before, by Turkish Foreign Minister, the War remains unravel. This raises a question whether mediation would really work in this case. The answer would be “It depends”.
In order for international conflict mediation to work, ‘Jacob Bercovitch’ a professor of international relations mentioned three factors. First, parties must be motivated to settle their conflict and seriously dedicated to mediation. Second, the conflict must be ready for intervention. Meaning that the conflict has reached the dead end, for example, a military setback, parties have tried and failed their negotiation. Lastly, a suitable mediator must be available. Prof. Bercovitch also mentioned that the ideal mediators should be intelligent, have great skills in drafting formal proposals, and with some sense of humor. Prior to all of those and most importantly, the mediators must have specific knowledge of the conflict which put before them.
– Who could possibly be the mediator in this mess?
Individuals, states or other organizations may be international mediators. Senior decision making officials often perform duty as mediators. As in this case, the foreign minister of Türkiye[1] (Formerly known as Turkey) was the mediator. Nevertheless, it was unsuccessful.
As neutral as it has appeared to be throughout the world history, Switzerland could potentially be the perfect candidate for this. Its foreign policy which dictates Switzerland to not involve in armed or political conflicts between other states. It could be argued that this Swiss foreign policy would continue its tradition of not involving in any inter-state conflict. However, it could be marked in the history of the 21st century that, for the first time involving in international dispute, Switzerland has stopped this protracted conflict.
Bercovitch also brought up that Sweden have a reputation for impartiality, and often intervene a low-profile conflict via invitation. Nonetheless, this seems unlikely due to the recent decision of Sweden to join NATO.
- Conclusion
As mediation seems to be ineffective so far, it could be said that the problem is the mediator himself. Türkiye is known to be in affiliation with United States since, at least, the Cold War. Hence, it could be assumed that the other party, who is known to be on the other side of the two mentioned countries since 1960s, might not trust the appointed mediator. Also, there were only a handful of information came out to the public regarding the detail of the mediation. Nevertheless, there is still light in this dark conflict.
Resolving international conflict through mediation is not something new. It has been done before. Some worked, and some did not. There was a dispute regarding the border between Peru and Ecuador which was resolved by Brazil, Chile, Argentina and the United States. The Acta de Brasilia 1998 was signed as a result. The Clinton Parameters is also worth to mentioned here as it was a ‘somewhat’ successful mediation.
Reference: Mediation in International Conflict: An Overview of theory, A Review of Practice.
Citation: “Mediation in International Conflict: An Overview of Theory, A Review of Practice” Peacemaking in International Conflict: Methods and Techniques, eds. I. William Zartman and J. Lewis Rasmussen, Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1997, pp. 125-154.
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[1] Officially changed its name to Türkiye, effective 1 June 2022.
